How far and how fast should one of the planet’s most densely populated conurbations be allowed to grow? asks Asia Sentinel
There is a curious lack of interest in Hong Kong over the issue of how far and fast its population should grow and indeed in critical issues raised by its current and future demographics.
Last week the government Census and Statistics Department published its population projections for 2010-2039, data which reach into many areas of government policy. But it went largely ignored by the media.
It is not as if population growth is something outside the government’s remit. Furthermore, some past over-estimates in government long-term planning documents have been so large that there have been suspicions that they have been pumped up to justify all kinds of infrastructure projects designed to keep influential contractors and government departments busy.
Using a 2009 baseline of 7.003 million the forecast is for the total to reach 8,892 million by 2039, an annual increase of some 0.8 percent or 63,000 a year. This may seem a surprising increase given that Hong Kong has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world – currently 1.042 births per women of fertile age – and is projected to fall further. The territory also already has a median age of 40.7 years and this will rise to 47.6 by 2039.(The figures would be 41.4 and 49.0 if foreign domestic helpers, who have no residence rights, were excluded from the population).
Some of the projected increase in population can be accounted for by assumed rising life expectations. At present this is 79.8 years for men and 86.1 for women and is projected to increase gradually to 83.7 for men and 90.1 for women by 2039. This may itself be an over-optimistic assumption given the impacts of pollution and obesity, both relatively new phenomena, on those now in middle age. But it is a slower gain than the 5.5 year rise in life expectancy achieved since 1989. In any case it illustrates just what a huge adjustment Hong Kong faces over the next 30 years in dealing with a much older population. Now only 6.2 percent of the population is 75 or more. That will increase to 16 percent by 2039. At that time only 10.5 percent will be under 15 years of age.
The ageing process would be even faster were it not for assumptions of population inflow that could prove to be over-estimates. They are also the ones more subject to government action. The first is the number of one-way permit holders arriving from the mainland – those permitted to remain as permanent residents. This has been steady at 150 a day or 54,000 a year since 1995 and is assumed to remain the same though there is potential to alter it. There are complaints in Hong Kong that it is not only too many but that most are unskilled and add to social problems due to the shortage of unskilled work and remote locations of much low cost housing. Both the level and choice of one way permit issuance should be a matter for public discussion – but never is.
